CoachSky said:3. Sample size. If you open too few packs, your risk is low, but your chances to make up for lost coins are also low. Also, don't open too many. Statistically, this will put you at or close to the average and you may break even, and your loss is small in proportion, but so is your profit. I personally think the 1 million coins for 25 packs is a good middle ground.
Bro lmfao this is how people get hooked on scratchers.
I stop around 8 or so. Then try another (time of) day. Each has its own odds btw. This is the same bad math about flipping a penny 50 times. 25 is pushing major losses, and a lot more than $0.25!
Saw similar YouTube logic or 'bettor odds' with picking Vikes over Giants, Josh Allen pasing TD / Stefon Diggs receiving TD, etc predictors.. and your guess is as good as anybody else.
If you have $1M gold sitting around, 'better odds' are playing the AH for lower level start cards, then making sets, and (eventually) post to AH for $72k to $78k, or QS. Rinse, repeat.