Are the 47k RR packs the move?

Does anyone have a large sample size? 

 i’ve calculated if you buy 20 packs, that’ll cost you  940,000 coins. all you need to break even is;

15x 93s | Market Price: ~30k | 15x30,000=450k

4x 95’s | Market Price: ~60k | 4x60,000=240k

1 x 98 | Market Price: ~240k | 1x240,000=240k

450+240+240=930,000 coins 

plus you get all the extra players in the second slot which you can QS or use in RR sets, are these the move?

RyyoLurkedEm said:

Does anyone have a large sample size? 

 i’ve calculated if you buy 20 packs, that’ll cost you  940,000 coins. all you need to break even is;

15x 93s | Market Price: ~30k | 15x30,000=450k

4x 95’s | Market Price: ~60k | 4x60,000=240k

1 x 98 | Market Price: ~240k | 1x240,000=240k

450+240+240=930,000 coins 

plus you get all the extra players in the second slot which you can QS or use in RR sets, are these the move?

If your willing to risk your coins then maybe it is

The listed odds for the pack tell us there is 27% chance of a 95 ovr card. So in 20 packs you'd expect to get 5.4 95+ ovrs so you're good there

In the odds listed for the pack it says the chance listed for a 98 is around 3.4%. This means we're looking at .6 98s in twenty.

You'll need to be a bit lucky to break even but there's worse things you could be doing with your coins. I think you have better odds of breaking even then pulling something good in 20 tvps

I bought the 5 700k packs today and made a grand total of 100k profit so idk

Went from 21m to 14m

with doing the exchanges I was able to complete 30-35 exchange sets.

GGerz said:

Went from 21m to 14m

with doing the exchanges I was able to complete 30-35 exchange sets.

How many RPs did you manage to get done? Also, what was your method?

papichulo1858 said:

How many RPs did you manage to get done? Also, what was your method?

I had 20ish pre-built from prepping.

rest completed through the 47k pack

the rest i built through the packs. 21m to 14m

pulled a million at a time, and then completed exchanges

- 4x Any 95+. Making sure I used no more than 3 RR cards. Wasting otherwise

- 3x 95 RR & 1x 93. Build as many 98s as I can.

- Once I run out of 95s, I build 95s through the up exchange set. Making sure I have enough 93s to complete step 3

- once i can no longer do step 3 & 4, i’ll exchange up and build RR 93s.

- repeat

took me a bit to find that grove, so probably coulda had more. Might not be the best way but it helped me.

GGerz said:

I had 20ish pre-built from prepping.

rest completed through the 47k pack

the rest i built through the packs. 21m to 14m

pulled a million at a time, and then completed exchanges

- 4x Any 95+. Making sure I used no more than 3 RR cards. Wasting otherwise

- 3x 95 RR & 1x 93. Build as many 98s as I can.

- Once I run out of 95s, I build 95s through the up exchange set. Making sure I have enough 93s to complete step 3

- once i can no longer do step 3 & 4, i’ll exchange up and build RR 93s.

- repeat

took me a bit to find that grove, so probably coulda had more. Might not be the best way but it helped me.

I appreciate the detailed response.

Short answer - yes - if you get enough 95s.

Long answer - if you notice the pack is hot, I would pull a few, but pick a stopping point i.e. if you have 2.5 mil in coins stop at 2 mil. If you keep pulling you’re bound to hit a cold streak and could lose a lot of your coins. You can still turn a lot of the 93s into 95s but don’t pour millions of coins into the packs. You might as well buy the players straight up at that point.

I think so. I have pulled several 98 and a bunch of 95. Got a couple 98 non Royale also. I only have the final week to get done now

GGerz said:

I had 20ish pre-built from prepping.

rest completed through the 47k pack

the rest i built through the packs. 21m to 14m

pulled a million at a time, and then completed exchanges

- 4x Any 95+. Making sure I used no more than 3 RR cards. Wasting otherwise

- 3x 95 RR & 1x 93. Build as many 98s as I can.

- Once I run out of 95s, I build 95s through the up exchange set. Making sure I have enough 93s to complete step 3

- once i can no longer do step 3 & 4, i’ll exchange up and build RR 93s.

- repeat

took me a bit to find that grove, so probably coulda had more. Might not be the best way but it helped me.

I must have been lucky with the packs cuz I have 3 weeks done only about 7 m spent

Great post / thread, with some excellent and detailed responses.  I do not have a large sample size, but after eight (8) of the 700k packs, i can definitively say, STAY AWAY.  Those are not the move... unless you need liek five Kyle Hamiltons, heh.

My "method" will ultimately depend on how determined, how obsessive you are about pinching pennies.  For the second round i managed to find random off days (anywhere from Friday night through Tuesday) where i was just obsessively watching the AH, quickly snatching up any 98 OVR Redzone Royale players that were sub 230k.  I managed to pick up a small handful at 200k even, with the bulk coming in around the 220k range(ish).  For next week's release, i've got all 16 98s ready to roll, but didn't want to spend another weekend working the AH so i basically just paid for anything that was under 240k.  Most were purchased in the 220-234k range for week three.

I started with roughly 18M coins, i'm just under 11M at the moment, need 16 more 98s to finalize all 32 RP sets.  Three weeks done with roughly ~7M spent is almost exactly where i'm at, as well.  I got a single 99 OVR Kyle Hamilton out of the packs, otherwise not sure i've seen a single 98, however there have been quite a decent amount of 95s.  I've done a little of everything at this point, including building random 91+ sets, 93+ (from pulling 560k Training in Mold Breaker rerolls) and 95+ sets, as well when Mold Breakers hit.

Justin_Time18 said:

If your willing to risk your coins then maybe it is

I've been rolling 4 mill a week for two weeks now. and  both time I ended up with a 99 Royal player to sell and a few extra 93s plus a boatload of 84 through 86 players clogging my binder.

It's a fallacy to say if something is hot go with it.  Just know the odds of hitting on any one pack are the same regardless of what the pack prior was.  So if you pull  a 98 one pack then a 95.  Packs are not hot, the odds will balance out.  For more info google gamblers fallacy. Thanks for playing