Harvest prediction Tokens

jetasontop said:

sir i just looked none of those games are from thankgiving day

and this is for thanksgiving game only

No where did it say “thanksgiving day only”…

jetasontop said:

it would be dumb if it wasnt not thanksgiving games only because almost every score has been done

You clearly don't understand what Scorigami is or how it works. There's an entire website devoted to it. Lol

Terryfying said:

You clearly don't understand what Scorigami is or how it works. There's an entire website devoted to it. Lol

im s0rry

jetasontop said:

im s0rry

And in response to you saying like every score has already happened or whatever, I believe there has already been 5 Scorigamis this season.

jetasontop said:

it would be dumb if it wasnt not thanksgiving games only because almost every score has been done

There was one 3 weeks ago (Hou beat TB 39-37)

The league average over the last decade is 7 per season. That means* there is approx 2.9% chance any individual game is a scorigami, and an 8.7% chances that one of the Thanksgiving games was a scorigami.

* caveats

• fairly small sample size alert
• There's an extra week on the schedule now
• scorigami chance decreases with each successful scorigami
• scorigami chance probably increases when high scoring teams are playing (such as when Miami hammered Denver)

Sneekes said:

There was one 3 weeks ago (Hou beat TB 39-37)

The league average over the last decade is 7 per season. That means* there is approx 2.9% chance any individual game is a scorigami, and an 8.7% chances that one of the Thanksgiving games was a scorigami.

* caveats

• fairly small sample size alert
• There's an extra week on the schedule now
• scorigami chance decreases with each successful scorigami
• scorigami chance probably increases when high scoring teams are playing (such as when Miami hammered Denver)

Majority of the last decade there were 256 games per season right? 7÷256 would imply a .027 or 2.7% chance in any one game. Ignoring the fact that each time it's occurred the odds become marginally worse. And then the way the odds would actually work where you have a 2.7 percent chance to win and 3 attempts to do so would look like this.

1-(97.3÷100×97.3÷100×97.3÷100)=.0788

Or with your first established number

1-(97.1÷100×97.1÷100×97.1÷100)=.0845

Slightly worse even. Formula is simply 1 minus your chances of failing on all 3 attempts. Calculating the odds of a scorigami is basically impossible anyway. Football is far too dynamic and there are way too many variables lol. I think when you bet on one in Vegas the implied probability (based on betting payouts) for one TO happen is nearly 5% whereas if you bet on one not to happen the implied probability is 99%. Of course the house always wins but maybe we should assume that we were pretty close and the actualy probability might be somewhere between those two numbers.