So confused by the market right now

First year playing MUT, and have made the AH my bitch all year as I work in finance but I am genuinely a bit taken back by the current state of the market. For the most part it’s been very predictable, and i didn’t believe everyone who said “market gonna crash 50%”, but didn’t see the price of many higher overall cards going up anywhere from 25-50%. anyone have any guesses why? Is it simply the common economic law of demand increasing leads to price Increasing?  Is EA controlling the market this heavily right now? I’ve watched them sabotage my money makers all year lol like I’ll be cleaning up on a set and randomly over the next 15 minutes a dozen or so of the card I’m selling will magically start selling for 4200 coins driving the price of the card down, good one EA. Anyways wtf is happening right now.

First, lemme admit I’m not a tinfoil hatter when it comes to EA intervening in the market by buying/selling/supplying cards. I think basic supply/demand dynamics have explained the market all year. In my view, the market is completely upside down. There are fewer low to mid value cards than I’ve seen in my eight years in MUT, largely because the number of packs that create these cards are lower than historically. On the flip side, the money packs for champs/LTDs are more frequent than ever. So when money is spent, it‘s spent buying a small number of cards instead of packs that create a sizable number of cards the buyer is likely to post in the AH. 

This year, when EA changed champ set builds to allow for any hero level card, it created a mad chase to find those cards to avoid having to spend to buy them directly. That creates a market hole in the middle/middle-high AH. And when a multi week program requires the same set pieces, it dries up that supply.

Given that the presents didnt either supply desired cards or their set pieces, the AH is even drier. So here we are.

jsmiller2003 said:

First, lemme admit I’m not a tinfoil hatter when it comes to EA intervening in the market by buying/selling/supplying cards. I think basic supply/demand dynamics have explained the market all year. In my view, the market is completely upside down. There are fewer low to mid value cards than I’ve seen in my eight years in MUT, largely because the number of packs that create these cards are lower than historically. On the flip side, the money packs for champs/LTDs are more frequent than ever. So when money is spent, it‘s spent buying a small number of cards instead of packs that create a sizable number of cards the buyer is likely to post in the AH. 

This year, when EA changed champ set builds to allow for any hero level card, it created a mad chase to find those cards to avoid having to spend to buy them directly. That creates a market hole in the middle/middle-high AH. And when a multi week program requires the same set pieces, it dries up that supply.

Given that the presents didnt either supply desired cards or their set pieces, the AH is even drier. So here we are.

This doesnt make any sense at all. The Presents did exactly that, supplied a lot of people with 90s and cards to make 90s, which is what you use to make the 93s that everyone wants. They did exactly what you said they didnt

It doesn't require a tinfoil hat...  I've spent years in MUT, and a lot of the time, I've spent in the AH.  AND multiple times, I've been refreshing for snipes and such and will see a card batchposted (like 10+), all at the same exact time, either way higher or way lower than the market price.  EA definitely manipulates the market, and I was thinking yesterday. "How tf are these 94s going up?" after the presents dropped.  It makes zero sense outside of EA trying to"correct" the market.

I think that there are a lot of people/kids off for the holiday. They are hosing the auction house in an attempt to build their teams and build sets for players they want. Yes, the presents sucked and are way lower than useable for a competitive team. What they are doing is kind of obvious because they are paying way more than what they are worth for 87+...They appear to be in a hurry to build whatever sets they want.

Michael1Nine said:

This doesnt make any sense at all. The Presents did exactly that, supplied a lot of people with 90s and cards to make 90s, which is what you use to make the 93s that everyone wants. They did exactly what you said they didnt

Psyched you pulled tons of 90s!

jsmiller2003 said:

First, lemme admit I’m not a tinfoil hatter when it comes to EA intervening in the market by buying/selling/supplying cards. I think basic supply/demand dynamics have explained the market all year. In my view, the market is completely upside down. There are fewer low to mid value cards than I’ve seen in my eight years in MUT, largely because the number of packs that create these cards are lower than historically. On the flip side, the money packs for champs/LTDs are more frequent than ever. So when money is spent, it‘s spent buying a small number of cards instead of packs that create a sizable number of cards the buyer is likely to post in the AH. 

This year, when EA changed champ set builds to allow for any hero level card, it created a mad chase to find those cards to avoid having to spend to buy them directly. That creates a market hole in the middle/middle-high AH. And when a multi week program requires the same set pieces, it dries up that supply.

Given that the presents didnt either supply desired cards or their set pieces, the AH is even drier. So here we are.

Appreciate the input, that’s some heady logic there. I will say I have witnessed with my own eyes EA driving down prices of cards/sets that smart people are exploiting for coins, I’ve watched it happen at least a dozen times, unless there is some big fish who pulled 10 patrick Surtains in a minute and listed them all for the cheapest price possible, and that big fish did that everyday as soon as I started making tons of coins off of a card lol. As far as them buying up cards when they are crashing in price, that I have no proof of. I do however feel like yesterday should’ve released a ton of set makers or “middle cards” as you put it, maybe it didn’t idk.

hom3y said:

It doesn't require a tinfoil hat...  I've spent years in MUT, and a lot of the time, I've spent in the AH.  AND multiple times, I've been refreshing for snipes and such and will see a card batchposted (like 10+), all at the same exact time, either way higher or way lower than the market price.  EA definitely manipulates the market, and I was thinking yesterday. "How tf are these 94s going up?" after the presents dropped.  It makes zero sense outside of EA trying to"correct" the market.

Yeah there is definitely some outside manipulation going on in my opinion. Seems like lil shitheads getting the game for Christmas wouldn’t cause this.

There’s only one sure way to make coin with least amount of work. Buy desirable LTDs on Day of release, sell 3 days later, rinse repeat. I’ve built a 93 ovr nms squad like so, spending maybe 15 minutes a days on the companion app. 
Gronks & fatman made me over 5 mil in a day lol.

Mishkabigcat said:

There’s only one sure way to make coin with least amount of work. Buy desirable LTDs on Day of release, sell 3 days later, rinse repeat. I’ve built a 93 ovr nms squad like so, spending maybe 15 minutes a days on the companion app. 
Gronks & fatman made me over 5 mil in a day lol.

As I get more familiar with the market ive noticed that as well, LTDs are cheapest in the early AM hours of release day, and then shoot up. I’ll admit I’ve just been too big of a bitch to sink all of my coins into that strat, but I agree it seems like the easiest and fastest way. The slow mind numbing snipe/set grind is just so much safer from a potential nightmare loss.

jsmiller2003 said:

Psyched you pulled tons of 90s!

I know reading might not be your biggest strength, but pulling the 90s isnt the point here

There are a few things I would pinpoint.

1. EA Dumped a ton of coins on the market with those golden opportunity packs.
2. Expectations were high for presents and tons of good cards (90s+) were consumed for the training to snow reroll.
3. Presents ended up being worse than a lot of the cards that were used to feed the rerolls. A consumed 90 would give about 5k snow. That 5k snow would not even get two lavish presents which could end up being two 87s.
4. MUT player base seems smaller than ever with a higher density of whales and sharks than ever. The "fun mode" head to head was full of players with ltds and ebooks. Your average shark doesn't have any new blood to feast on so they have to play more of the market themselves to keep up. This means people are hoarding and investing into big money cards as a way of funding their own teams because you can't just play the game and keep up.