spartanfan1000's posts

TheManWithThePlan said:

EDIT 3: THEY ANNOUNCED FAN VOTING WILL RETURN FOR WHEN IT COMES BACK!!! WOOOOOOOOO!!! That said, this'll stay up of course as a way to look at some (hopefully) likely candidates as to who could earn themselves a vote.

Howdy all! It's getting to that time in the MUT season, for what is arguably my favorite promo of the season, Team of the Year. Probably the best value promo every season given you can get two top-end cards with minimal effort throughout the season, and there are enough cards that (usually) you can get at least one for a theme team.

And as such, speculating on who gets what position is just as fun to me as guessing who gets AP All-Pro honors or awards at the Honors show the night before the Super Bowl. So let's do that! I'm gonna base my list on three things: 

1. Season stats
2. Their currently highest-rated card in MUT
3. Their PFF rating (mainly for offensive lineman; not putting much weight into this at all)

That goes about in the order I value each. Obviously there are some situations where I think one player deserves it over another in a vacuum based on stats, but say they have a card that's +4 OVR above the next candidate & is a top level card at his position already, in which case I'm going to give it to the lower OVR guy. That said, if one guy is just head and heels above the rest, I'm not gonna say no to giving it to him outright. Anyway, that's about it for my explanation, and I'll be giving some reasoning to each player as we go, so let's get this list started...

OFFENSE:

QB: Josh Allen - Ultimately I think Patrick Mahomes had a better season across the board, but he has a 95, and the next best QB after him (IMO) was Allen. He has a 92, put up 35 passing TDs, over 4k yards in the air, was in the top-10 of most efficiency stats, and also put up another 7 TDs on the ground. Jalen Hurts was also up for consideration with his 13 rushing TDs, but with 10 fewer air TDs and a 94 already, I think Allen would be given the nod.

HB: Josh Jacobs - This feels like a no-brainer. Jacobs had the best season, hands-down, for a HB this season. Led the entire league in both rushing yards and scrimmage yards (the only player to put up over 2k scrimmage yards, at that), 12 rushing TDs, and only a 92 at the moment. CMC's 700+ receiving yards was also looked into, but that's more fitting of the 3DRB but he's good enough to be considered as an traditional back that I don't think he'd get consideration for either.

WR1: Justin Jefferson - I was torn on whether he would get one until one of my original candidates, Tyreek, just had a 96 announced earlier today. Because of that, since he still only has a 93, led the league in receiving yards, top-10 in yards per target, and 2nd in receptions per game, I think it's only right that he gets his 3rd TOTY card in a row.

WR2: Davante Adams - This was incredibly tough to decide on between Tae and AJ Brown. Tae has a 92, Brown has a 93. Tae had 20 more yards and three more TDs, Brown was vastly more efficient in what he did (better yd/tgt, better catch%). That said, the tiebreaker for me was Davante had a better selection of impressive performances (8 100-yard games, 5 2-TD games) compared to AJ Brown's (5 100-yard games, 2 2-TD games, 1 3-TD game). Plus, they may hold off on Brown to see if he could get a SB card.

TE: Travis Kelce - Even with a 94, Kelce was far and away the best TE in the league and it's not even remotely close. The next closest candidate, TJ Hockenson, already has a 95, and the next closest with a 92 is Mark Andrews, who also has 500 fewer yards, is less efficient, and has half as many TDs. I think you bite the bullet and just give Kelce the +2.

LT: Trent Williams - They typically like to give the big names the nod for TOTY lineman, and I don't think that's any different for the former Sooner. Best card is a 92, PFF has him listed as the best Tackle in the game right now, and he's on a good team. I feel for Darrisaw as it does rob him of a well-needed upgrade from 76, but I'd imagine Silverback would sell more packs.

LG: Joel Bitonio - Guards and Centers are always the hardest to guess as to who they'll give cards to. Bitonio's got an 87, is a big name, and rated the 2nd-best Guard by PFF. Quenton Nelson and Landon Dickerson would also be up for consideration were it not for Nelson getting a 95, and Dickerson getting that playoff card that could be obsolete before it even gets its final upgrade.

C: Tyler Linderbaum - Throwing darts at a dartboard for this one. PFF has Creed Humphrey (95) and Jason Kelce (94) as their top-2 rated Centers, then Ethan Pocic who I doubt anyone's heard of. After that, Connor Williams, Frank Ragnow, and then Linderbaum. I think they'll go Linderbaum just because ¯\_(ツ)_/¯. If not him then Ragnow.

RG: Chris Lindstrom - Another last-card-was-Blitz guy like Linderbaum. Lindstrom's the highest-rated Guard from PFF by almost 8 points. Shoot.

RT: Tristan Wirfs - Once again, a big name. Best card before this is a 90, rated as the 6th-best Tackle per PFF. I don't imagine Trent Brown would be in the running because he lined up at Left Tackle most of this season, fortunately (or maybe unfortunately for my Niners TT).

DEFENSE:

LE: Maxx Crosby - Defense is where it starts to become a little less clear-cut, so I'm judging them based on key stats. In this case, Crosby's 12.5 sacks, 89 combined tackles, and 35 QB hits put him into the Left End spot for this lineup. 

RE: Myles Garrett/Nick Bosa - This was incredibly tough to choose. Both defenders have had stellar seasons. Bosa had 2.5 more sacks and led the league in QB hits, but with as well as both of them played, it's gonna be give the nod to either. If they give us a Rush DE as a specialist again this year, then I'd expect Bosa to get that with Garrett getting the standard, otherwise they may wait to see if Bosa gets a shot at the Super Bowl. Otherwise, I think he should get the nod, but it's incredibly close.

DT: Jonathan Allen - Holy miss by me. I had D.J. Reader in this spot originally, but he missed almost half the season and, regardless of that, did not put up even remotely close numbers to Allen in that time. 7.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 44 solo tackles, and a pick? All with an 85? Yeah, he needs the upgrade. Da'Ron Payne is also worth consideration at 11 sacks and an 81 OVR. Regardless, I'll hold this L. (Plus D.J. got a TOTW LTD so who's laughin' now?)

LOLB: Haason Reddick - The nod goes to Reddick due to his insane sack numbers (16.0) and that Judon as his next closest competition already has a 94 compared to Reddick's 88. Not to mention he forced five fumbles this season. Give it to him. That said, I could also see them putting Parsons in as a big name, but with a 93, they may look to give it to someone else. I could go either way on this.

MLB: Nick Bolton - So, this was Fred Warner, but of course he got the Playoffs 96, so he's out of contention for this. That said, I think I'm gonna run it back on Lavonte David, at least for the main MLB spot. Real quick, lemme get this out of the way: I'm not saying Bobby Wagner and T.J. Edwards because, while both were arguably better, they already have upgrades (95 and a recent 93). That said, I think Nick Bolton has a stronger case towards this with 100+ solo tackles, a pair of picks, and a forced fumble. Plus, PFF likes his advanced metrics, he's a Run Stopper archetype (important for later), and he only has a 92. There were several good MLBs, so pick your favorite, but I think Bolton has a claim.

ROLB: Khalil Mack - Another fan-favorite. Like Reader, Warner, and David, his last card was a 90 during Harvest. Had a hell of a season with the Chargers and ultimately takes the last of the front-7...err, technically the front-6.

CB1: Tariq Woolen - As the only CB with 6 INTs + a pick-six, I think even with his 93, Woolen gets the nod. Add to that the meta and how people have loved Woolen since they gave him the Comp Pass card, and I think it's a no-brainer they give Woolen the card here.

CB2: Sauce Gardner - In a similar vein to Woolen, Gardner's got height and the stats to back it up, with 20 pass deflections leading the league and two picks to add to it. He's only got a 90 and even with a chance at DROTY in NFL Honors, that's never stopped them from giving cards out in TOTY.

CB3: Jalen Ramsey - If they do this in the same way as last year, they'll give three regular CB cards out instead of two CBs + a slot CB specialist, and with as good as all three of these have been, I could see them doing the former. Back to Ramsey: 4 INTs, 2nd in pass deflections, 2 fumbles forced, and 88 tackles. Nothing short of incredible again.

FS: Minkah Fitzpatrick - Even with a 93, he's played lights out for another season in a row. 6 picks, one pick-six, 11 deflections, and 96 tackles. Crown that man.

SS: Talanoa Hufanga - This was tough as there was not any one clear candidate for Strong Safety. As such, I'm giving it to one of the most balanced Safeties in the league, with 2 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 4 picks + a pick-six, and 97 tackles. Add to that how he was on the best D in the league, and I think he's got a good shot.

SPECIALISTS:

K: Jason Myers - This would be Justin Tucker's to lose most other years, but he already has a 94, and Myers has technically scored one more point overall this season, on top of having a better percentage on field goals than Tucker.

P: Ryan Stonehouse - He broke the yards-per-punt record set by Sammy Baugh back in 1940!!! Not only that, but he broke it by a whole 1.7 yards. He skipped 52 yd/punt and went straight to 53.1. Any other punter selected here would be a tragedy.

FB: Patrick Ricard - They just gave Kyle Juszczyk a 90, and Ricard's a favorite amongst people who use fullbacks. No-brainer here.

KR/PR: Marcus Jones (CB) - Sorry, y'all. 5'8" is useless otherwise, but he's arguably the best returner of the year. Best yd/return on punts, most punt return yards in general, and that game-winning punt return against the Jets to win the game 10-3. It's only fair to him. If they don't give it to him there, it's likely Keisean Nixon (CB) for a lot of the same reasons, just on kick returns.

3DRB: Rhamondre Stevenson (HB) - With Ekeler getting the Matthew Berry POTY and CMC fitting the mold of a traditional RB like mentioned above, I think it's really anyone's game. I'm going Stevenson here but slot in any back with a good ability to catch passes makes sense, a la J.D. McKissic in years past. Preferably choose a guy who's regularly the RB2 or RB3 on his team, normally.

Slot WR: Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR) - They didn't do this last year, much alike to Slot CB, and I think that has to do with Deebo getting the POTY. That said, if they choose to bring it back, Sun God's been stellar out of the slot.

Sub-LB: Roquan Smith - Again, not David as I just didn't like his résumé over Smith's here. You could argue Smith even had a better season than Bolton, but I'm putting Smith here instead of the main LB because 1.) more INTs (3>2, isn't much but it is something); 2.) is the Pass Coverage archetype, and 3.) only has a 90. Smith has a shot.

Rush-DE: See RE: Myles Garrett/Nick Bosa

Rush-DT: Cameron Heyward (RE) ??? - Hargrave just had a 96 AKA New Class card announced, so no more realistic Speed Rusher DTs!!! _Yaaaaayyyyyy..._Only guess I can make is that I think I recall them putting some larger DEs that have played interior positions in this spot before. Cam Heyward has done that, and he only has an 88. Go for it lol.

Slot CB: See CB3: Jalen Ramsey

PLAYER OF THE YEAR PREDICTION:

It'll be curious to see whether or not EA chooses to do this like they have the last two years—with the Matt Berry POTY in Ekeler last week, I'd have to imagine that's the alternative. That said, if they still have the POTY LTD for TOTY like Watt and Deebo were, my guess would go towards Sauce Gardner (CB). Woolen's great and all, but Gardner's got the hype around him to warrant getting the LTD. If they choose to give Gardner and Woolen standard cards in the situation that either of them earn Honors though, then I'd put my money on Myles Garrett (RE) or Nick Bosa (RE) getting the spot.

That should just about do it. I'm really excited to see what EA has in the cards for TOTY again this year, and it'll be interesting to see whether they reintroduce fan voting for the program again like they did last year, because that would just about invalidate this whole list lol. Regardless, let me know what you think! Tell me on who you agree and disagree on with this list, and post your own predictions as to who you think will get cards for TOTY!

EDIT:

I'm really glad to see the reaction this has received! It's raised a good bit of discourse and this sort of speculation is exactly what I love with big promos! I'll be going through the replies and responding to any concerns or considerations to the list because I do think there are some good inquiries of why one player was chosen over another.

EDIT 2:

Gonna update the list with any players I overlooked that deserve it on second consideration:

- Jonathan Allen to replace D.J. Reader: 7:18PM ET, 1/16/2023

- Nick Bolton to replace Fred Warner: 9:05PM ET, 1/19/2023

- Roquan Smith in at Sub-LB: 9:05PM ET, 1/19/2023

- Cameron Heyward to replace Javon Hargrave: 4:56AM ET, 1/23/2023

God damn man. This is a fat W. Excellent read and I can agree with every pick here.